A Trump victory in the US election could disrupt Dorset’s climate goals, putting county ambitions to reach net zero at risk amid fears of weakened international collaboration.
Leaders in the Bournemouth, Christchurch, and Poole (BCP) Council warned that a shift in US climate policy could jeopardise their 2030 carbon neutrality target. With Dorset’s largest emissions coming from transport, agriculture, and household energy, councillors fear that reduced American support for global initiatives may strain local resources and stall long-term plans.
“If Trump gets in, he’ll decide to think he doesn’t believe in climate change,” said BCP Councillor Lesley Dedman. “Any support that we get from the Americans will immediately be stopped. Trump is not at all interested in the UK or Europe.”
The upcoming US election has implications that extend well beyond America, potentially shaping UK climate policy and affecting local government strategies, including those in Dorset. Global climate agreements like the Paris Agreement rely on US involvement, with councils like BCP depending on these commitments to maintain international momentum, secure funding, and access green technology partnerships. The Met Office’s climate models show a stark choice for the UK: sharp emission cuts now, or increased exposure to severe climate impacts, especially in coastal regions like Dorset.
A recent Dorset council report highlights the county’s main greenhouse gas sources: transport (29 per cent), agriculture (33 per cent), and household energy (22 per cent). The report warns that local services, budgets, and the environment face serious risks from unchecked climate change, heightening the urgency for Dorset’s net zero goals.
BCP Council is pursuing carbon neutrality by 2030. It aims to expand this target across Bournemouth, Christchurch, and Poole to align with the UK’s national 2050 goal. But a Trump victory could complicate these efforts. Many of Dorset’s climate initiatives depend on multi-million-pound government grants, which could be harder to secure if international momentum falters.
On environmental policy, Trump and Harris represent starkly different approaches. Trump prioritises fossil fuel extraction, and in the past has called climate change a “hoax”. Referring to this, Councillor Millie Earl said: “Trump is a climate denier and will hinder any global approach to tackling the climate emergency. We saw it during his last administration and it’s likely we’ll see it again, and we don’t have time to dither because of populist politics.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, in contrasts, has called climate change an “existential threat” and played a decisive role in passing the Inflation Reduction Act, which allocated over $370 billion to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent by 2030. A Harris victory, hence, could strengthen UK-US climate collaboration, encouraging joint research and policy alignment.
Trump’s re-election could also mean a withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, as he did in 2017. Rejoining under Biden renewed global cooperation and put pressure on countries, including the UK, to meet ambitious climate targets. For Dorset, another US withdrawal could mean a tougher path toward its climate goals, with fewer international allies.
As climate scientists warn of dwindling opportunities to address global warming, the choice between Harris and Trump could have significant consequences, leaving councils like BCP facing new challenges.
“Here in our area, we have a fragile ecosystem, we have habitats under threat, and we have a coastline which can’t take sea level rises,” said Earl. “If the US don’t rise to the climate challenge, we’re going to feel the impact here.”
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